Site na 2021 ruo 2022, e nwere mmụba ngwa ngwa n'ahịa semiconductor zuru ụwa ọnụ n'ihi mpụta nke ọchịchọ pụrụ iche sitere na ntiwapụ COVID-19. Agbanyeghị, ka ọchịchọ pụrụ iche nke ọrịa COVID-19 kpatara kwụsịrị na ọkara ikpeazụ nke 2022 ma daba n'otu n'ime nnukwu ndakpọ akụ na ụba n'akụkọ ihe mere eme na 2023.
Agbanyeghị, a na-atụ anya na Great Recession ga-agbada na 2023, ebe a na-atụ anya na ọ ga-enweta mgbake zuru oke n'afọ a (2024).
N'eziokwu, n'ileba anya na mbupu semiconductor nke nkeji iri na ise n'ụdị dị iche iche, Logic agafeela elu kachasị elu nke ihe COVID-19 chọrọ kpatara ma tinye ọkwa dị elu ọhụrụ n'akụkọ ihe mere eme. Na mgbakwunye, Mos Micro na Analog nwere ike iru ọkwa dị elu n'akụkọ ihe mere eme na 2024, ebe ọ bụ na mbelata nke njedebe nke arịrịọ pụrụ iche nke COVID-19 kpatara abụghị ihe dị mkpa (Foto 1).
N'ime ha, Mos Memory nwetara nnukwu mbelata, wee daa n'ala na nkeji mbụ (Q1) nke 2023 wee malite njem ya iji gbakee. Agbanyeghị, o yiri ka ọ ka chọrọ oge dị ukwuu iji ruo n'ọkwa kachasị elu nke ihe achọrọ pụrụ iche nke COVID-19. Agbanyeghị, ọ bụrụ na Mos Memory agafee oke ya, mbupu zuru oke nke semiconductor ga-eru ọkwa kachasị elu n'akụkọ ihe mere eme ọhụrụ. N'uche m, ọ bụrụ na nke a emee, a pụrụ ikwu na ahịa semiconductor agbakeela nke ọma.
Agbanyeghị, lee mgbanwe ndị e mere na mbupu semiconductor, o doro anya na echiche a ezighi ezi. Nke a bụ n'ihi na, ebe mbupu Mos Memory, nke na-agbake, enwetala nnukwu uru, mbupu Logic, nke ruru ọkwa kachasị elu n'akụkọ ihe mere eme, ka dị n'ọkwa dị ala nke ukwuu. N'ikwu ya n'ụzọ ọzọ, iji mee ka ahịa semiconductor zuru ụwa ọnụ dịghachi ndụ n'ezie, mbupu nke nkeji logic ga-amụba nke ukwuu.
Ya mere, n'isiokwu a, anyị ga-enyocha mbupu semiconductor na ọnụọgụ maka ụdị semiconductor dị iche iche na semiconductor niile. Na-esote, anyị ga-eji ọdịiche dị n'etiti mbupu Logic na mbupu dị ka ihe atụ iji gosi otú mbupu wafer TSMC si ada n'azụ n'agbanyeghị mgbake ngwa ngwa. Na mgbakwunye, anyị ga-atụle ihe kpatara ọdịiche a ji dị ma tụọ aro na mgbake zuru oke nke ahịa semiconductor zuru ụwa ọnụ nwere ike igbu oge ruo 2025.
Na mmechi, ọdịdị nke mgbake ahịa semiconductor ugbu a bụ "echiche efu" nke GPU NVIDIA, nke nwere ọnụ ahịa dị oke elu kpatara. Ya mere, o yiri ka ahịa semiconductor agaghị agbake kpamkpam ruo mgbe ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe dịka TSMC ruru ikike zuru oke na mbupu Logic ruru ọkwa ọhụrụ nke akụkọ ihe mere eme.
Nyocha Mbupu Semiconductor na Ọnụọgụ
Foto nke 2 na-egosi usoro dị na uru na ọnụọgụ mbupu maka ụdị semiconductor dị iche iche yana ahịa semiconductor dum.
Ọnụọgụ mbupu nke Mos Micro ruru n'ọkwa kachasị elu na nkeji nke anọ nke afọ 2021, wee daa n'ọkara mbụ nke afọ 2023, wee malite ịgbake. N'aka nke ọzọ, ọnụọgụ mbupu egosighi mgbanwe dị ukwuu, ọ fọrọ nke nta ka ọ dị larịị site na nkeji nke atọ ruo nkeji nke anọ nke afọ 2023, yana obere mbelata.
Ọnụ ahịa mbupu Mos Memory malitere ịda nke ukwuu site na nkeji nke abụọ nke afọ 2022, daa na nkeji mbụ nke afọ 2023, ma malite ịrị elu, mana ọ gbakechara ruo ihe dị ka 40% nke uru kachasị elu na nkeji nke anọ nke afọ ahụ. Ka ọ dị ugbu a, ọnụọgụ mbupu agbakela ruo ihe dị ka 94% nke ọkwa kachasị elu. N'ikwu ya n'ụzọ ọzọ, a na-ewere ọnụego ojiji ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe nke ndị na-emepụta ebe nchekwa dị ka ikike zuru oke. Ajụjụ bụ ego ole ọnụahịa DRAM na NAND flash ga-abawanye.
Ọnụọgụ mbupu Logic ruru elu n'ime ọkara nke abụọ nke afọ 2022, wee daa n'ala na ọkara mbụ nke afọ 2023, wee daa, ruo ọkwa kachasị elu n'akụkọ ihe mere eme ọhụrụ na ọkara nke anọ nke otu afọ ahụ. N'aka nke ọzọ, uru mbupu ahụ ruru elu na ọkara nke abụọ nke afọ 2022, wee daa ruo ihe dị ka 65% nke uru kachasị elu na ọkara nke atọ nke afọ 2023 ma nọgide na-adị larịị na ọkara nke anọ nke otu afọ ahụ. N'ikwu ya n'ụzọ ọzọ, enwere nnukwu ọdịiche dị n'etiti omume nke uru mbupu na ọnụọgụ mbupu na Logic.
Ọnụọgụ mbupu analog ruru elu na nkeji nke atọ nke afọ 2022, wee daa na nkeji nke abụọ nke afọ 2023, ma ka kwụsie ike kemgbe ahụ. N'aka nke ọzọ, mgbe ọ gbasasịrị na nkeji nke atọ nke afọ 2022, uru mbupu ahụ nọgidere na-ebelata ruo nkeji nke anọ nke afọ 2023.
N'ikpeazụ, uru mbupu semiconductor niile belatara nke ukwuu site na nkeji nke abụọ nke 2022, daa na nkeji mbụ nke 2023, ma malite ịrị elu, na-agbake ruo ihe dị ka 96% nke uru kachasị elu na nkeji nke anọ nke otu afọ ahụ. N'aka nke ọzọ, ọnụọgụ mbupu ahụ belatara nke ukwuu site na nkeji nke abụọ nke 2022, daa na nkeji mbụ nke 2023, mana kemgbe ahụ ọ ka dị larịị, ihe dị ka 75% nke uru kachasị elu.
Site n'ihe dị n'elu, o yiri ka Mos Memory bụ ebe nsogbu dị ma ọ bụrụ na a tụlee ọnụọgụ mbupu naanị, ebe ọ gbakeela ruo ihe dị ka 40% nke uru kachasị elu. Agbanyeghị, site n'ileba anya nke ọma, anyị nwere ike ịhụ na Logic bụ nnukwu nchegbu, n'agbanyeghị na ọ ruru oke elu akụkọ ihe mere eme na ọnụọgụ mbupu, uru mbupu adaala na ihe dị ka 65% nke uru kachasị elu. Mmetụta nke ọdịiche a dị n'etiti ọnụọgụ mbupu na uru Logic yiri ka ọ gbasaa ruo n'ọhịa semiconductor dum.
Na nchịkọta, mgbake nke ahịa semiconductor zuru ụwa ọnụ dabere ma ọnụahịa Mos Memory ọ na-abawanye ma ma ọnụọgụ mbupu nke unit Logic ọ na-abawanye nke ukwuu. Ka ọnụahịa DRAM na NAND na-arị elu mgbe niile, nsogbu kachasị ukwuu ga-abụ ịbawanye ọnụọgụ mbupu nke unit Logic.
Na-esote, anyị ga-akọwa etu ọnụọgụ mbupu TSMC na mbupu wafer si arụ ọrụ iji gosi nke ọma ọdịiche dị n'etiti ọnụọgụ mbupu Logic na mbupu wafer.
Uru Mbupu TSMC na Mbupu Wafer nke Kwa Afọ
Foto nke atọ na-egosi nhazi ahịa TSMC site na nood na usoro ahịa nke 7nm na karịa na nkeji nke anọ nke 2023.
TSMC nọ n'ọkwa 7nm na karịa dịka n'ọkwa ndị dị elu. Na nkeji nke anọ nke afọ 2023, 7nm ruru 17%, 5nm maka 35%, na 3nm maka 15%, ngụkọta nke 67% nke n'ọkwa ndị dị elu. Na mgbakwunye, ahịa nkeji nke atọ nke n'ọkwa ndị dị elu anọwo na-abawanye kemgbe nkeji mbụ nke afọ 2021, ha nwetara mbelata otu ugboro na nkeji nke anọ nke afọ 2022, mana ha dara ala ma malite ịrị elu ọzọ na nkeji nke abụọ nke afọ 2023, na-eru ọkwa kachasị elu akụkọ ihe mere eme ọhụrụ na nkeji nke anọ nke otu afọ ahụ.
N'ikwu ya n'ụzọ ọzọ, ọ bụrụ na ị lelee arụmọrụ ahịa nke nodes dị elu, TSMC na-arụ ọrụ nke ọma. Yabụ, kedu maka ego TSMC na-enweta kwa ọnwa atọ na mbupu wafer (Foto nke 4)?
Chaatị nke uru mbupu nke TSMC na mbupu wafer nke nkeji iri na ise dabara adaba. Ọ ruru elu n'oge afụ IT nke afọ 2000, daa mgbe ihe mberede Lehman nke afọ 2008 gasịrị, ma nọgide na-ada ada mgbe mgbawa afụ ncheta nke afọ 2018 gasịrị.
Agbanyeghị, omume ahụ mgbe oke ọchịchọ pụrụ iche gasịrị na nkeji nke atọ nke afọ 2022 dị iche. Ọnụ ahịa mbupu ahụ ruru ijeri dọla $20.2, wee daa nke ukwuu mana ọ malitere ịlaghachi azụ mgbe ọ dasịrị na ijeri dọla $15.7 na nkeji nke abụọ nke afọ 2023, ruo ijeri dọla $19.7 na nkeji nke anọ nke afọ ahụ, nke bụ pasent 97 nke ọnụ ahịa kachasị elu.
N'aka nke ọzọ, mbupu wafer kwa ọnwa atọ ruru nde wafers 3.97 na nkeji nke atọ nke afọ 2022, wee daa, wee daa na njedebe na nde wafers 2.92 na nkeji nke abụọ nke afọ 2023, mana ọ ka dị larịị mgbe nke ahụ gasịrị. Ọbụna na nkeji nke anọ nke afọ ahụ, ọ bụ ezie na ọnụọgụ wafers ebugara belatara nke ukwuu site na oke, ọ ka dị nde wafers 2.96, nke bụ mbelata nke ihe karịrị nde wafers 1 site na oke ahụ.
Ihe kacha emepụta semiconductor nke TSMC mepụtara bụ Logic. Ahịa TSMC nke n'ime nkeji nke anọ nke afọ 2023 nke n'ime nkeji iri anọ nke afọ 2023 ruru ọkwa kachasị elu n'akụkọ ihe mere eme, ebe ahịa niile na-agbake ruo 97% nke elu akụkọ ihe mere eme. Agbanyeghị, mbupu wafer kwa ọnwa ka karịrị otu nde wafers dị obere karịa n'oge kachasị elu. N'ikwu ya n'ụzọ ọzọ, ọnụego ojiji ụlọ ọrụ TSMC n'ozuzu ya bụ naanị ihe dị ka 75%.
Banyere ahịa semiconductor zuru ụwa ọnụ n'ozuzu ya, mbupu Logic agbadala ruo ihe dị ka 65% nke ọnụ ọgụgụ kachasị elu n'oge mkpa pụrụ iche nke COVID-19. N'otu oge ahụ, mbupu wafer nke TSMC kwa ọnwa atọ ebelatala site na ihe karịrị otu nde wafer site na ọnụ ọgụgụ kachasị elu, yana ọnụego ojiji ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe dị ihe dị ka 75%.
N'ile anya n'ọdịnihu, ka ahịa semiconductor zuru ụwa ọnụ wee gbakee n'ezie, mbupu Logic kwesịrị ịba ụba nke ukwuu, iji mezuo nke a, ọnụego ojiji nke ụlọ ọrụ ntọala nke TSMC na-edu ga-eru oke ikike zuru oke.
Ya mere, olee mgbe kpọmkwem nke a ga-eme?
Amụma Ọnụego Ojiji nke Ụlọ Ọrụ Isi
Na Disemba 14, 2023, ụlọ ọrụ nyocha Taiwan TrendForce mere ogbako "Industry Focus Information" na Grand Nikko Tokyo Bay Maihama Washington Hotel. Na ogbako ahụ, onye nyocha TrendForce Joanna Chiao tụlere "Atụmatụ zuru ụwa ọnụ nke TSMC na atụmanya ahịa Semiconductor Foundry maka 2024." N'ime isiokwu ndị ọzọ, Joanna Chiao kwuru maka ịkọ amụma ọnụego ojiji nke ụlọ ọrụ foundry (Foto
Olee mgbe mbupu Logic ga-abawanye?
Nke a ọ dị mkpa ma ọ bụ na ọ dịghị mkpa? Ọ bụ ezie na ajụjụ a dị mfe nghọta, ọbụlagodi na 2026, 92% nke wafers fọdụrụnụ ka ga-eri site na chips na-abụghị AI semiconductor. Ọtụtụ n'ime ha ga-abụ chips Logic. Ya mere, ka mbupu Logic wee mụbaa ma maka nnukwu ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe nke TSMC na-edu ruo n'ike zuru oke, ọchịchọ maka ngwaọrụ eletrọnịkị dịka ekwentị mkpanaaka, PC, na sava ga-amụba.
Na nchịkọta, dabere na ọnọdụ dị ugbu a, ekwetaghị m na ndị na-emepụta ihe ...
Agbanyeghị, enwere ihe ọzọ (nwere olileanya) nwere ike ime ka amụma a gbanwee.
Ruo ugbu a, ihe niile a kọwara na semiconductors AI na-ekwu maka semiconductors arụnyere na sava. Agbanyeghị, enwere ugbu a usoro nke ime nhazi AI na njedebe (n'akụkụ) dịka kọmputa nkeonwe, ekwentị mkpanaaka, na mbadamba.
Ihe atụ gụnyere atụmatụ Intel maka AI PC na mbọ Samsung na-agba iji mepụta ekwentị mkpanaaka AI. Ọ bụrụ na ihe ndị a apụta ìhè (n'ikwu ya n'ụzọ ọzọ, ọ bụrụ na ihe ọhụrụ emee), ahịa semiconductor AI ga-agbasa ngwa ngwa. N'ezie, ụlọ ọrụ nyocha US bụ Gartner buru amụma na ka ọ na-erule njedebe nke 2024, mbupu nke ekwentị mkpanaaka AI ga-eru nde unit 240, mbupu nke PC AI ga-eru nde unit 54.5 (maka ntụaka naanị). Ọ bụrụ na amụma a emezuo, ọchịchọ maka Logic kachasị ọhụrụ ga-abawanye (n'ihe gbasara uru na ọnụọgụ mbupu), ọnụego ojiji nke ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe dịka TSMC ga-arị elu. Na mgbakwunye, ọchịchọ maka MPUs na ebe nchekwa ga-etokwa ngwa ngwa.
N'ikwu ya n'ụzọ ọzọ, mgbe ụwa dị otu a bịarutere, ndị na-emepụta ihe ...
Oge ozi: Eprel-08-2024