Site na 2021 ruo 2022, enwere mmụba ngwa ngwa n'ahịa semiconductor zuru ụwa ọnụ n'ihi mpụta nke ihe pụrụ iche sitere na ntiwapụ COVID-19. Agbanyeghị, dị ka ihe pụrụ iche nke ọrịa COVID-19 kpatara kwụsịrị na ọkara ikpeazụ nke 2022 wee daba n'otu n'ime nlaazu ego kacha njọ na akụkọ ntolite na 2023.
Agbanyeghị, a na-atụ anya na Great Recession ga-agbada na 2023, na-atụ anya mgbake zuru oke n'afọ a (2024).
N'ezie, na-elele mbupu semiconductor nke nkeji iri na ise gafee ụdị dị iche iche, Logic agafeelarị elu nke ihe pụrụ iche COVID-19 kpatara wee tọọ ọkwa akụkọ ihe mere eme ọhụrụ. Na mgbakwunye, Mos Micro na Analog nwere ike iru ọkwa dị elu nke akụkọ ihe mere eme na 2024, n'ihi na mbelata nke njedebe nke COVID-19 chọrọ pụrụ iche kpatara adịghị mkpa (Foto 1).
N'ime ha, Mos Memory nwetara mbelata dị ukwuu, wee gbadaa na nkeji mbụ (Q1) nke 2023 wee malite njem ya na mgbake. Agbanyeghị, ọ ka na-achọ nnukwu oge iji ruo ọnụ ọgụgụ kasị elu nke ihe pụrụ iche COVID-19 chọrọ. Agbanyeghị, ọ bụrụ na Mos Memory karịrị ọnụ ọgụgụ ya, ihe ịrụ ụka adịghị ya na mbupu semiconductor ga-adaba nnukwu akụkọ ihe mere eme ọhụrụ. N'uche nke m, ọ bụrụ na nke a emee, enwere ike ịsị na ahịa semiconductor agbakeela nke ọma.
Agbanyeghị, ilele mgbanwe na mbupu semiconductor, o doro anya na echiche a hiere ụzọ. Nke a bụ n'ihi na, ebe mbupu nke Mos Memory, nke na-agbake, agbakeela nke ukwuu, mbupu Logic, nke ruru ọkwa dị elu nke akụkọ ihe mere eme, ka nọ n'ọkwa dị oke ala. N'ikwu ya n'ụzọ ọzọ, iji tụte ahịa semiconductor zuru ụwa ọnụ n'ezie, mbupu nke nkeji mgbagha ga-abawanye nke ukwuu.
Ya mere, n'isiokwu a, anyị ga-enyocha mbupu semiconductor na ọnụọgụ maka ụdị dị iche iche nke semiconductor na ngụkọta semiconductor. Na-esote, anyị ga-eji ọdịiche dị n'etiti mbupu Logic na mbupu dị ka ihe atụ iji gosi ka ụgbọ mmiri TSMC si na-ada azụ n'agbanyeghị mgbake ngwa ngwa. Na mgbakwunye, anyị ga-atụgharị uche na ihe kpatara ọdịiche a ji dị ma tụọ aro na mgbake zuru oke nke ahịa semiconductor zuru ụwa ọnụ nwere ike igbu oge ruo 2025.
Na mmechi, ọdịdị dị ugbu a nke mgbake ahịa semiconductor bụ "echiche efu" nke NVIDIA's GPUs kpatara, nke nwere ọnụ ahịa dị oke elu. Ya mere, ọ dị ka ahịa semiconductor agaghị agbake n'ụzọ zuru ezu ruo mgbe ntọala ndị dị ka TSMC ruru ikike zuru oke na ụgbọ mmiri Logic ruru elu akụkọ ihe mere eme ọhụrụ.
Ọnụ ahịa mbupu Semiconductor na nyocha ọnụọgụ
Ọnụọgụ 2 na-egosi usoro dị na ọnụahịa mbupu na ọnụọgụ maka ụdị semiconductor dị iche iche yana ahịa semiconductor dum.
Olu mbupu nke Mos Micro ruru na nkeji nke anọ nke 2021, gbadara na nkeji mbụ nke 2023 wee malite ịgbake. N'aka nke ọzọ, ọnụ ọgụgụ mbupu ahụ egosighi mgbanwe dị ịrịba ama, ọ fọrọ nke nta ka ọ dị larịị site na nkeji nke atọ ruo nkeji nke anọ nke 2023, na-enwe ntakịrị mbelata.
Uru mbupu nke Mos Memory malitere ibelata nke ukwuu site na nkeji nke abụọ nke 2022, gbadaa na nkeji mbụ nke 2023 wee bido ịrị elu, mana ọ gbakere na ihe dịka 40% nke ọnụ ahịa kacha elu na nkeji nke anọ nke otu afọ. Ka ọ dị ugbu a, ọnụ ọgụgụ mbupu agbakeela ihe ruru 94% nke ọkwa kacha elu. N'ikwu ya n'ụzọ ọzọ, a na-ahụta ọnụ ọgụgụ ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe nke ndị na-emepụta ebe nchekwa na-abịaru nso ike zuru oke. Ajụjụ bụ ole DRAM na NAND flash ahịa ga-abawanye.
Ọnụ ọgụgụ mbupu nke Logic ruru na nkeji nke abụọ nke 2022, gbadata na nkeji mbụ nke 2023, wee maliteghachi, rute nnukwu akụkọ ihe mere eme na nkeji nke anọ nke otu afọ. N'aka nke ọzọ, ọnụahịa mbupu ahụ ruru na nkeji nke abụọ nke 2022, wee jụta ihe ruru 65% nke ọnụ ahịa kacha elu na nkeji nke atọ nke 2023 wee nọgide na-adị larịị na nkeji nke anọ nke otu afọ. N'ikwu ya n'ụzọ ọzọ, enwere nnukwu ọdịiche dị n'etiti omume nke uru mbupu na oke ibu na Logic.
Ọnụnọ mbupu Analog ruru na nkeji nke atọ nke 2022, gbadara na nkeji nke abụọ nke 2023 ma ka kwụsiri ike. N'aka nke ọzọ, mgbe ọ gbasasịrị na nkeji nke atọ nke 2022, ọnụahịa mbupu gara n'ihu na-agbada ruo nkeji nke anọ nke 2023.
N'ikpeazụ, ọnụ ahịa mbupu semiconductor gbadara nke ọma site na nkeji nke abụọ nke 2022, gbadaa na nkeji mbụ nke 2023, wee malite ịrị elu, na-agbake ruo ihe dịka 96% nke ọnụ ahịa kacha elu na nkeji nke anọ nke otu afọ. N'aka nke ọzọ, ọnụ ọgụgụ mbupu ahụ gbadara nke ọma site na nkeji nke abụọ nke 2022, gbadaa na nkeji mbụ nke 2023, mana ọ ka dị larịị, na gburugburu 75% nke ọnụ ahịa kacha elu.
Site na nke a dị n'elu, ọ na-egosi na Mos Memory bụ mpaghara nsogbu ma ọ bụrụ na a na-atụle ọnụọgụ mbupu, ebe ọ bụ na ọ gbakere na gburugburu 40% nke ọnụ ahịa kacha elu. Agbanyeghị, n'ileba anya n'ụzọ sara mbara, anyị nwere ike ịhụ na Logic bụ nnukwu nchegbu, n'ihi na n'agbanyeghị iru elu akụkọ ihe mere eme n'ọtụtụ mbupu, uru mbupu adalatala na gburugburu 65% nke ọnụ ahịa kacha elu. Mmetụta nke ọdịiche a dị n'etiti ọnụọgụ mbupu Logic na uru dị ka ọ na-agbasa ruo na mpaghara semiconductor niile.
Na nchịkọta, mgbake nke ahịa semiconductor zuru ụwa ọnụ na-adabere ma ọnụ ahịa Mos Memory na-abawanye yana ma oke ibu nke Logic nkeji na-abawanye nke ukwuu. Site na ọnụ ahịa DRAM na NAND na-arị elu, nnukwu okwu ga-abawanye ụba nke nkeji Logic.
Na-esote, anyị ga-akọwa omume nke oke mbupu TSMC na mbupu wafer iji gosi kpọmkwem ọdịiche dị n'etiti ọnụọgụ mbupu Logic na mbupu wafer.
Uru mbupu nke nkeji nkeji nke TSMC na Mbupu Wafer
Ọnụọgụ 3 na-akọwa ndakpọ ahịa TSMC site na ọnụ yana usoro ire ahịa nke 7nm na usoro karịa na nkeji nke anọ nke 2023.
TSMC na-etinye 7nm na karịa dị ka ọnụ ọgụgụ dị elu. N'ime nkeji nke anọ nke 2023, 7nm ruru 17%, 5nm maka 35%, yana 3nm maka 15%, na-agbakọta 67% nke ọnụ ụzọ dị elu. Na mgbakwunye, ire ahịa nke otu ụzọ n'ụzọ anọ nke ọnụ ụzọ dị elu na-abawanye kemgbe nkeji mbụ nke 2021, nwere mbelata otu ugboro na nkeji nke anọ nke 2022, mana gbadata wee malite ibili ọzọ na nkeji nke abụọ nke 2023, na-erute akụkọ ihe mere eme ọhụrụ dị elu. nkeji nke anọ nke otu afọ ahụ.
N'ikwu ya n'ụzọ ọzọ, ọ bụrụ na ị na-elele arụmọrụ ahịa nke ọnụ ụzọ dị elu, TSMC na-arụ ọrụ nke ọma. Yabụ, kedu maka TSMC n'ozuzu ego ha nwetara n'ime nkeji iri na ise na mbupu wafer (Njirimara 4)?
Chaatị nke uru mbupu nke otu ụzọ n'ụzọ anọ na mbupu wafer dabara n'otu n'otu. Ọ gbagoro elu n'oge afụ IT nke 2000, jụrụ mgbe ujo Lehman 2008 gasịrị, wee gaa n'ihu na-adalata ka mgbawa nke afụ ebe nchekwa 2018.
Agbanyeghị, omume mgbe ọnụ ọgụgụ kacha elu nke ihe achọrọ pụrụ iche na nkeji nke atọ nke 2022 dị iche. Ọnụ ahịa mbupu ahụ ruru ijeri $ 20.2, wee gbadaa nke ukwuu mana ọ malitere ịmaliteghachi mgbe ọ gbadara na ijeri $ 15.7 na nkeji nke abụọ nke 2023, ruru ijeri $ 19.7 na nkeji nke anọ nke otu afọ, nke bụ 97% nke ọnụ ahịa kacha elu.
N'aka nke ọzọ, mbupu wafer nke otu ụzọ n'ụzọ anọ ruru na 3.97 nde wafer na nkeji nke atọ nke 2022, wee daa, na-agbada na 2.92 nde wafer na nkeji nke abụọ nke 2023, mana ọ nọgidere na-adị larịị. Ọbụna na nkeji nke anọ nke otu afọ, ọ bụ ezie na ọnụ ọgụgụ nke wafers na-ebufe na-ebelata nke ukwuu site na ọnụ ọgụgụ kasị elu, ọ ka nọgidere na 2.96 nde wafers, mbelata nke ihe karịrị 1 nde wafers site na ọnụ ọgụgụ kasị elu.
Semiconductor na-emekarị nke TSMC mepụtara bụ Logic. Ahịa nke ụzọ anọ nke TSMC 2023 nke ọnụ ụzọ dị elu ruru ọkwa akụkọ ihe mere eme ọhụrụ, yana ire ahịa na-agbake ruo 97% nke ọnụ ọgụgụ akụkọ ihe mere eme. Agbanyeghị, mbupu wafer nke otu ụzọ n'ụzọ anọ ka karịrị otu nde wafer na-erughị n'oge oge kacha elu. N'ikwu ya n'ụzọ ọzọ, ọnụego ojiji ụlọ ọrụ TSMC n'ozuzu bụ naanị ihe dịka 75%.
Banyere ahịa semiconductor zuru ụwa ọnụ n'ozuzu, mbupu Logic agbadala ihe dị ka 65% nke ọnụ ọgụgụ kacha elu n'oge COVID-19 chọrọ pụrụ iche. Na-aga n'ihu, mbupu wafer nke TSMC kwa nkeji iri na ise ejirila ihe karịrị otu nde wafer agbadala site na ọnụ ọgụgụ kacha elu, yana ọnụego ojiji ụlọ ọrụ na-eme atụmatụ na ọ dị ihe dịka 75%.
Na-ele anya n'ihu, maka ahịa semiconductor zuru ụwa ọnụ iji gbakee n'ezie, mbupu ụgbọ mmiri kwesịrị ịbawanye nke ukwuu, iji mezuo nke a, ọnụego ojiji nke ntọala ndị TSMC na-edu ga-erurịrị ikike zuru oke.
Ya mere, olee mgbe kpọmkwem nke a ga-eme?
Na-ebu amụma ọnụego ojiji nke isi ntọala
Na Disemba 14, 2023, ụlọ ọrụ nyocha Taiwan TrendForce mere nzukọ ọmụmụ "Industry Focus Information" na Grand Nikko Tokyo Bay Maihama Washington Hotel. Na nzukọ ọmụmụ ihe ahụ, onye nyocha TrendForce Joanna Chiao tụlere "TSMC's Global Strategy and the Semiconductor Foundry Market Outlook maka 2024." N'ime isiokwu ndị ọzọ, Joanna Chiao kwuru maka ibu amụma ọnụego ojiji ntọala (Foto
Kedu mgbe mbupu Logic ga-abawanye?
Nke a ọ bụ 8% dị ịrịba ama ma ọ bụ obere ihe? Ọ bụ ezie na nke a bụ ajụjụ aghụghọ, ọbụlagodi na 2026, 92% nke wafers fọdụrụnụ ka ga-eri site na ibe ndị na-abụghị AI semiconductor. Ọtụtụ n'ime ndị a ga-abụ Logic chips. Ya mere, maka mbupu Logic na-abawanye yana maka nnukwu ntọala ndị TSMC na-eduzi iji ruo ikike zuru oke, ọchịchọ maka ngwaọrụ eletrọnịkị dị ka smartphones, PC, na sava ga-abawanye.
Na nchịkọta, dabere na ọnọdụ dị ugbu a, ekwetaghị m na AI semiconductors dị ka NVIDIA's GPU ga-abụ onye nzọpụta anyị. Ya mere, a kwenyere na ahịa semiconductor zuru ụwa ọnụ agaghị agbake kpamkpam ruo 2024, ma ọ bụ ọbụna na-egbu oge ruo 2025.
Agbanyeghị, enwere ohere ọzọ (nwere nchekwube) nwere ike imebi amụma a.
Ka ọ dị ugbu a, ndị semiconductor AI niile kọwara na-ezo aka na semiconductor arụnyere na sava. Agbanyeghị, enwere ugbu a usoro nke ịme nhazi AI na ọdụ (ọnụ) dị ka kọmputa nkeonwe, smartphones, na mbadamba.
Ọmụmaatụ gụnyere AI PC nke Intel chọrọ na mbọ Samsung imepụta ekwentị AI. Ọ bụrụ na ndị a na-ewu ewu (n'ikwu ya n'ụzọ ọzọ, ọ bụrụ na ihe ọhụrụ emee), ahịa semiconductor AI ga-agbasa ngwa ngwa. N'ezie, ụlọ ọrụ nyocha US Gartner buru amụma na na njedebe nke 2024, mbupu nke AI smartphones ga-eru nde 240, na mbupu nke AI PC ga-eru 54.5 nde nkeji (maka naanị ntụaka). Ọ bụrụ na amụma a emezu, ọchịchọ maka mbelata Logic ga-abawanye (n'usoro nke mbupu uru na nke ukwuu), na itinye n'ọrụ ọnụego nke foundries dị ka TSMC ga-ebili. Na mgbakwunye, ọchịchọ maka MPU na ebe nchekwa ga-etokwa ngwa ngwa.
N'ikwu ya n'ụzọ ọzọ, mgbe ụwa dị otú ahụ rutere, AI semiconductor kwesịrị ịbụ ezigbo onye nzọpụta. Ya mere, site ugbu a gaa n'ihu, ọ ga-amasị m ilekwasị anya na usoro nke ihu AI semiconductors.
Oge nzipu: Eprel-08-2024